Correct score in betting

A bet on the exact final scoreline. Payouts are large because there are dozens of plausible results and you must name one precisely.

A Poisson model built on each team's expected goals gives you the probability of every scoreline, and even the most likely single result in a typical football match rarely exceeds 12%. Bookmakers know the market is popular and price it with among the widest margins on the board — 115% or more is normal.

P(score i-j) = Poisson(i, λ_home) x Poisson(j, λ_away), assuming independence.

Expected goals of 1.6 home and 1.1 away make 1-1 the most likely single score at about 12.5%, fair price 8.00. Many books offer 7.00 to 7.50, keeping 8% to 14% on the leg. To beat correct score you need both a genuine model and a book that is not gouging.

It is the clearest illustration of why margin matters more than payout size. A 10-1 payout on a 12% chance sounds thrilling and is a slow loss.

Correct score is a fixture of Nigerian jackpot coupons and street-level betting talk. Treat it as entertainment unless you have a scoreline model and have compared prices across at least two operators.

• Backing a scoreline because it "feels right" rather than because it is mispriced.
• Ignoring the enormous margin relative to 1X2 on the same match.
• Assuming independence between team goal counts in heavily one-sided games.