Form in betting

Form is a team's recent run of results. It is the most quoted and least predictive statistic in betting.

Results compress a match into three characters and throw away the information that mattered: chances created, chances conceded, injuries, the quality of the opposition. A five-match unbeaten run against the bottom five says something very different from the same run against the top five. Once you adjust for opponent strength and underlying numbers, most of what people call form disappears.

Adjust form by opponent: points per match relative to expected points against those specific opponents.

Team A: WWWDW. Team B: LLDLW. The market shortens A by around 0.20 on the price. If A's five matches came against relegation candidates and B just lost narrowly to the top three, the fair prices barely differ and the market is offering you the better side at a discount.

Form bias is one of the most reliable sources of soft money in football markets, especially in leagues covered heavily by casual bettors.

Nigerian weekend coupons lean heavily on visible form because it is the easiest data on the app. That is precisely why prices on in-form teams are routinely too short.

• Ignoring the quality of opposition behind a run.
• Treating cup results against lower-division sides as league form.
• Assuming form transfers across a two-week international break.