Anytime goalscorer in betting

A bet on a named player to score at any point during regulation time. Own goals do not count.

The price blends the player's scoring rate per 90 minutes, expected minutes on the pitch, penalty duty and how many goals his team is expected to score. A striker in a side expected to score two goals who takes 35% of them has roughly a 45% to 50% chance of scoring at least once, allowing for the possibility of multiple goals.

P(anytime) = 1 - e^-λ_player, where λ_player = team expected goals x player goal share.

Team expected goals 1.9, player takes 34% of team goals, so his personal λ ≈ 0.65. P(scores at least once) = 1 - e^-0.65 = 47.8%, fair price 2.09. A market price of 2.30 is a genuine overlay; 1.80 is not.

Player markets carry wider margins than team markets but also more genuine mispricing, because they require squad-level information most casual bettors do not check.

Nigerian bettors following Super Eagles players abroad often have better knowledge of form and fitness than the generic model does. That knowledge translates directly into these markets.

• Backing a player without checking whether he is expected to start.
• Ignoring penalty duty, which can add 0.1 or more to a player's expected goals.
• Forgetting that own goals are excluded from settlement.