First goalscorer — Hungarian NB I

First goalscorer is one of the most-liquid markets in Hungarian NB I. On this page we combine the aggregated bookmaker line with our Poisson-fitted Hungarian NB I model to highlight where the true probability is meaningfully different from the price.

We strip the bookmaker margin using our /tools/no-vig-calculator, then compare the fair price against the model. Any fixture where the model is at least 5% off the market is flagged as a value candidate.

Every other Hungarian NB I market has its own page — see the Hungarian NB I hub for the full list.