First goalscorer — UEFA Nations League

First goalscorer is one of the most-liquid markets in UEFA Nations League. On this page we combine the aggregated bookmaker line with our Poisson-fitted UEFA Nations League model to highlight where the true probability is meaningfully different from the price.

We strip the bookmaker margin using our /tools/no-vig-calculator, then compare the fair price against the model. Any fixture where the model is at least 5% off the market is flagged as a value candidate.

Every other UEFA Nations League market has its own page — see the UEFA Nations League hub for the full list.