Under 2.5 goals — EFL Cup

Under 2.5 goals is one of the most-liquid markets in EFL Cup. On this page we combine the aggregated bookmaker line with our Poisson-fitted EFL Cup model to highlight where the true probability is meaningfully different from the price.

We strip the bookmaker margin using our /tools/no-vig-calculator, then compare the fair price against the model. Any fixture where the model is at least 5% off the market is flagged as a value candidate.

Every other EFL Cup market has its own page — see the EFL Cup hub for the full list.