Under 2.5 goals — Ligue 1

Under 2.5 goals is one of the most-liquid markets in Ligue 1. On this page we combine the aggregated bookmaker line with our Poisson-fitted Ligue 1 model to highlight where the true probability is meaningfully different from the price.

We strip the bookmaker margin using our /tools/no-vig-calculator, then compare the fair price against the model. Any fixture where the model is at least 5% off the market is flagged as a value candidate.

Every other Ligue 1 market has its own page — see the Ligue 1 hub for the full list.